Retail Sales Analysis · Case study overview

Retail Sales Analysis

Four years of transactions from a US retail chain, 9,994 order lines and $2.30M in sales, read for one question: where is the profit actually made, and where is it leaking away?
9,994 Order lines analysed
2014–2017 Four full years
$2.30M Total sales
12.5% Overall profit margin

The question

The business was growing steadily, at a compound rate of 14.8% a year, and on a sales chart it looked healthy in every direction. Revenue was split almost evenly across the three product categories, and the four regions were close enough to each other that nothing stood out.

What management could not say was which parts of the business were paying for the rest. A balanced revenue mix hides an unbalanced profit mix, and a 12.5% overall margin is an average of things that are not alike. The brief was to find where margin was being made and lost, and to come back with changes worth making rather than a description of the data.

The data

  • Source: the Tableau Sample Superstore dataset, a public file widely used for analytics work. Using a public source means every figure on these pages can be reproduced.
  • Scope: 9,994 order lines, January 2014 to December 2017.
  • Coverage: 49 states and the District of Columbia, grouped into four regions, across three product categories and seventeen sub-categories.
  • Structure: 21 original columns, plus derived temporal, financial and categorical fields built during preparation.

Step 2 sets out the cleaning and the derived fields in full, including the Excel formulas and how each one was validated.

Approach

The work ran in five stages, each one feeding the next:

1
Data preparation
2
Multi-dimensional analysis
3
Interactive visualisation
4
Strategic recommendations
5
Implementation planning

The analysis itself cut the data five ways: over time, by geography, by product category, by customer segment and by operational measures such as shipping mode and discount level. Each cut answered a different question, and the picture only made sense once they were read together.

What the analysis found

Revenue is balanced. Profit is not.

The three categories look almost equal on revenue: Technology 36.4%, Furniture 32.3%, Office Supplies 31.3%. On profit they are nothing alike. Technology returns 17.4% and Office Supplies 17.0%, while Furniture returns 2.5%. Nearly a third of the revenue contributes 6.4% of the profit.

Discounting past 20% does not trade margin for volume. It destroys margin.

Undiscounted orders run at a 29.5% margin. Between 21% and 30% off, the margin is minus 10.0%. Above 30% off it is minus 48.2%. Those two bands are 15.8% of revenue and take $135K off the bottom line.

Regional margin varies close to twofold.

West 14.9%, East 13.5%, South 11.9%, Central 7.9%. Central is the outlier, and the reason is specific rather than general: Furniture actually loses money there, at minus $2,871, while it is at least marginally profitable everywhere else.

Demand is strongly seasonal, and reliably so.

Q4 takes 38.2% of annual sales against 15.7% in Q1, and the pattern repeats in all four years. November peaks at $352K and February bottoms out at $60K, close to a sixfold swing between the best and worst months. That is predictable enough to plan inventory and staffing against.

Tools

Microsoft Excel Pivot tables Tableau Time series analysis Profitability analysis Data storytelling

Read the case study

Five steps, in order. Each one stands on its own if you would rather jump straight to the part you care about.